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Limited By:	Author = Mesabbah, Mohammed;

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An Empirical Estimation of Statistical Inferences for System Dynamics Model Parameters (2014)

Mesabbah, Mohammed; Rashwan, Wael; Arisha, Amr

An Empirical Estimation of Statistical Inferences for System Dynamics Model Parameters (2014)

Mesabbah, Mohammed; Rashwan, Wael; Arisha, Amr

Abstract:

For system dynamics simulation (SD) models, an estimation of statistical distributions for uncertain parameters is crucial. These distributions could be used for testing models sensitivity, quality of policies, and/or estimating confidence intervals for these parameters. Assumptions related to normality, independence and constant variation are often misapplied in dynamic simulation. Bootstrapping holds a considerable theoretical advantage when used with non-Gaussian data for estimating empirical distributions for unknown parameters. Although it is a widely acceptable approach, it has had only limited use in system dynamics applications. This paper introduces an application of Direct Residual Bootstrapping (DRBS) for statistical inference in system dynamic model. DRBS has been applied successfully to ‘The Irish Elderly Patient Delayed Discharge’ dynamic model to estimate empirical distribution for some unknown parameters with a minimal computation effort. The computational results sh...

https://arrow.dit.ie/buschmarcon/128

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AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF STATISTICAL INFERENCES FOR SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL PARAMETERS (2014)

Mesabbah, Mohammed; Rashwan, Wael; Arisha, Amr

AN EMPIRICAL ESTIMATION OF STATISTICAL INFERENCES FOR SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL PARAMETERS (2014)

Mesabbah, Mohammed; Rashwan, Wael; Arisha, Amr

Abstract:

https://arrow.dit.ie/buschmarcon/159

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HYBRID MODELING FOR VINEYARD HARVESTING OPERATIONS (2016)

Mesabbah, Mohammed; Mahfouz, Amr; Ragab, Mohamed; Arisha, Amr

HYBRID MODELING FOR VINEYARD HARVESTING OPERATIONS (2016)

Mesabbah, Mohammed; Mahfouz, Amr; Ragab, Mohamed; Arisha, Amr

Abstract:

Hiring workers under seasonal recruiting contracts causes significant variation of workers skills in the vineyards. This leads to inconsistent workers performance, reduction in harvesting efficiency, and increasing in grape losses rates. The objective of this research is to investigate how the variation in workers experience could impact vineyard harvesting productivity and operational cost. The complexity of the problem means that it is difficult to analyze the system parameters and their relationships using individual analytical model. Hence, a hybrid model integrating discrete event simulation (DES) and agent based modeling (ABM) is developed and applied on a vineyard to achieve research objective. DES models harvesting operation and simulates process performance, while ABM addresses the seasonal workers heterogeneous characteristics, particularly experience variations and disparity of working days in the vineyard. The model is used to evaluate two seasonal recruiting policies ag...

https://arrow.dit.ie/buschmarcon/153

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Hybrid Simulation-based Planning Framework for Agri-Fresh Produce Supply Chain (2017)

Mesabbah, Mohammed

Hybrid Simulation-based Planning Framework for Agri-Fresh Produce Supply Chain (2017)

Mesabbah, Mohammed

Abstract:

The ever-increasing demand for fresh and healthy products raises the economic importance of managing Agri-Fresh Produce Supply Chain (AFPSC) effectively. However, the literature review has indicated that many challenges undermine efficient planning for AFPSCs. Stringent regulations on production and logistics activities, production seasonality and high yield variations (quantity and quality), and products vulnerability to multiple natural stresses, alongside with their critical shelf life, impact the planning process. This calls for developing smart planning and decision-support tools which provides higher efficiency for such challenges. Modelling and simulation (M&S) approaches for AFPSC planning problems have a proven record in offering safe and economical solutions. Increase in problem complexity has urged the use of hybrid solutions that integrate different approaches to provide better understanding of the system dynamism in an environment characterised by multi-firm and mul...

https://arrow.dit.ie/busdoc/24

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UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR OF THREE ECHELON RETAIL SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS (2015)

Crowe, John; Mesabbah, Mohammed; Arisha, Amr

UNDERSTANDING THE DYNAMIC BEHAVIOUR OF THREE ECHELON RETAIL SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTIONS (2015)

Crowe, John; Mesabbah, Mohammed; Arisha, Amr

Abstract:

It is often taken for granted that the right products will be available to buy in retail outlets 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year. Challenges in achieving this continued on-shelf availability range from recession hit demand patterns to cost reduction driven strategies. Irish government initiatives to brand the country as a sustainable, reliable provider of food retail supply chains has resulted in increased importance on decision maker accuracy. The vulnerability of retail supply chain’s (RSC) to disruption is another catalyst in the complexity of the decision making process and a more robust understanding of disruption behavior is needed. The aim of this paper is to illustrate the advantages of integrating balanced scorecard system thinking to system dynamic modeling of an extended retail supply chain. With this approach, decision makers can gain a better understanding of disruptions within their own organization and the partnerswithin their extended RSC.

https://arrow.dit.ie/buschmarcon/154

Displaying Results 1 - 5 of 5 on page 1 of 1