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Author = Portillo, Juan Munoz;
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Displaying Results 1 - 3 of 3 on page 1 of 1
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Austerity and credibility in the Eurozone
(2015)
McMenamin, Iain; Breen, Michael; Portillo, Juan Munoz
Austerity and credibility in the Eurozone
(2015)
McMenamin, Iain; Breen, Michael; Portillo, Juan Munoz
Abstract:
During the euro crisis policy-makers tried to re-establish credibility with austere budgets. Studies of austerity have been plagued by measurement and endogeneity problems. We provide a direct test of the effect of austerity on confidence by calculating the immediate impact of austere budgets on government bonds. We build a unique database of budget dates and conduct event studies of 223 (future) Eurozone budgets. Since austere budgets are enacted in particular circumstances, we use a treatment effects design to measure markets’ responses. Our findings are discouraging for the argument that austerity can provide a positive credibility shock. Markets do not welcome austerity. On the contrary, austere budgets are associated with substantial interest rate increases. These results underline how constrained governments are in debt crises.
http://doras.dcu.ie/20342/
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Elections and sovereign debt in advanced economies
(2013)
McMenamin, Iain; Breen, Michael; Portillo, Juan Munoz
Elections and sovereign debt in advanced economies
(2013)
McMenamin, Iain; Breen, Michael; Portillo, Juan Munoz
Abstract:
This article argues that advanced economies never eradicated political risk. We demonstrate that elections had large impacts on the long-term interest rates of nineteen countries in 130 elections over thirty years. Using an event-study methodology, we calculate that the resolution of uncertainty on the announcement of election results reduces interest rates. Very little of the variation is explained by economic variables. By contrast, familiar variables from comparative politics provide powerful explanations of variation in the impact of elections on borrowing rates. The biggest is ideology: the larger the swing towards the right in the parliament the larger the reduction in the interest rate. Two other variables also matter through their role in uncertainty. Close elections increase uncertainty during the campaign, leading to a greater reduction in uncertainty when the result is announced and a drop in the interest rate. By contrast, consensual institutions reduce uncertain...
http://doras.dcu.ie/18358/
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Electoral systems and pork barrel politics: Evidence from Honduras
(2011)
Portillo, Juan Munoz
Electoral systems and pork barrel politics: Evidence from Honduras
(2011)
Portillo, Juan Munoz
Abstract:
Can electoral systems determine how particularistic spending is distributed in developing countries? The ways in which legislators seek benefits for their constituencies, have been the subject of longstanding debate in political science. While the discussion has broadly focused on the theoretical consequences of electoral systems on legislators’ behaviour, little evidence has accounted for these alleged effects, especially in developing country settings. This paper focuses on particularistic spending in Honduras, providing a natural experiment to test different relevant hypotheses found in the literature. Since the early 1980s Honduras used a closed-list ballot with single-member and plurinominal districts electoral system. In 2004 the country moved to an open ballot structure keeping the same range of district magnitude. On the basis of original data from the Honduran Social Investment Fund, a battery of statistical tests is conducted. It is expected that under a closed-list system...
http://doras.dcu.ie/16654/
Displaying Results 1 - 3 of 3 on page 1 of 1
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