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Subject = Elections;
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Displaying Results 1 - 25 of 31 on page 1 of 2
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Coalition Plan Falls Short of Pre-election Promises
(2011)
Donnelly, Paul; Hogan, John; O'Rourke, Brendan
Coalition Plan Falls Short of Pre-election Promises
(2011)
Donnelly, Paul; Hogan, John; O'Rourke, Brendan
Abstract:
There was much on openness and fighting white-collar crime in the parties’ manifestos – but where are they in the programme for government.
https://arrow.dit.ie/buschmarart/105
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Comparative politics and quasi-rational markets
(2016)
McMenamin, Iain; Breen, Michael; Muñoz-Portillo, Juan
Comparative politics and quasi-rational markets
(2016)
McMenamin, Iain; Breen, Michael; Muñoz-Portillo, Juan
Abstract:
This article synthesises psychology, economics and political science theories that can explain market reaction to elections. In order to test the theories, we conduct event studies of the impact of elections on the interest rates on government bonds for 122 elections in 19 countries. The efficient market hypothesis states that rational markets immediately incorporate all information relevant to asset prices. According to psychology, human decision-making is quasi-rational. Market actors should be slow to accept evidence that conflicts with previously held opinions, leading them to under-react to new information. We show that markets under-react to elections and that under-reaction is greater in majoritarian countries because they provide more information to the market. Assuming fully rational markets underestimates the impact of elections and variations in impact across political systems. Most of the literature on market constraint assumes rational markets and may thus be underestim...
http://doras.dcu.ie/22102/
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Elections and macroeconomic outcomes in Ireland, 1948-91
(1993)
Annett, Anthony M.
Elections and macroeconomic outcomes in Ireland, 1948-91
(1993)
Annett, Anthony M.
Abstract:
This paper tests the main politico-economic theories of the relationships between elections and macroeconomic outcomes using Irish data over the period 1948-91. The results suggest that Fianna Fail governments have been more expansionary than Fine Gael-led alternatives, that is they have been more concerned with output and unemployment rather than inflation. It is also tentatively suggested that lower unemployment acts as a signal for the incumbent to call an election. It is also found that minority governments tend to be more shortlived than majorities.
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64577
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Elections and sovereign debt in advanced economies
(2013)
McMenamin, Iain; Breen, Michael; Portillo, Juan Munoz
Elections and sovereign debt in advanced economies
(2013)
McMenamin, Iain; Breen, Michael; Portillo, Juan Munoz
Abstract:
This article argues that advanced economies never eradicated political risk. We demonstrate that elections had large impacts on the long-term interest rates of nineteen countries in 130 elections over thirty years. Using an event-study methodology, we calculate that the resolution of uncertainty on the announcement of election results reduces interest rates. Very little of the variation is explained by economic variables. By contrast, familiar variables from comparative politics provide powerful explanations of variation in the impact of elections on borrowing rates. The biggest is ideology: the larger the swing towards the right in the parliament the larger the reduction in the interest rate. Two other variables also matter through their role in uncertainty. Close elections increase uncertainty during the campaign, leading to a greater reduction in uncertainty when the result is announced and a drop in the interest rate. By contrast, consensual institutions reduce uncertain...
http://doras.dcu.ie/18358/
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Ireland: Something for almost everyone
(2019)
Marsh, Michael
Ireland: Something for almost everyone
(2019)
Marsh, Michael
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/89967
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Exploring Voting Blocs Within the Irish Electorate: A Mixture Modeling Approach
(2015)
Gormley, Isobel Claire; Murphy, Thomas Brendan
Exploring Voting Blocs Within the Irish Electorate: A Mixture Modeling Approach
(2015)
Gormley, Isobel Claire; Murphy, Thomas Brendan
Abstract:
Irish elections use a voting system called proportion representation by means of a single transferable vote(PR-STV). Under this system, voters express their vote by ranking some (or all) of the candidates in order of preference. Which candidates are elected is determined through a series of counts where candidates are eliminated and surplus votes are distributed.The electorate in any election forms a heterogeneous population: that is voters with different political and ideological persuasions would be expected to have different preferences for the candidates. The purpose of this article is to establish the presence of voting bloes in the Irish electorate, to characterize these blocs and to estimate their size.A mixture modeling approach is used to explore the heterogenecity of the Irish electorate and to establish the existence of clearly defined voting blocs. The voting blocs are characterized by thier voting preferences which are described using a ranking data model. In addition t...
http://hdl.handle.net/10197/7122
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Fair representation and the concept of proportionality
(2010)
Baker, John
Fair representation and the concept of proportionality
(2010)
Baker, John
Abstract:
The idea of proportionality, which compares votes cast to seats won, is a common test of fair representation. But fair representation is a relation between electoral aims and electoral outcomes. The proportionality test falsely presupposes that each voter aims to support a political party. It therefore tells us nothing about fair representation. We need to construct a deeper criterion of fair representation which takes account of citizens' multiple political concerns.
Not applicable
ti, ke - Al 06/07/2010
http://hdl.handle.net/10197/2169
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Fertilizer and Votes: Does Strategic Economic Policy Explain the 2009 Malawi Election?
(2015)
Brazys, Samuel; Heaney, Peter; Walsh, Patrick P.
Fertilizer and Votes: Does Strategic Economic Policy Explain the 2009 Malawi Election?
(2015)
Brazys, Samuel; Heaney, Peter; Walsh, Patrick P.
Abstract:
Ethno-regional voting cleavages have featured in a number of sub-Saharan African states during the third wave of democratization. While these voting patterns are well studied, there have been few attempts to understand if pan-ethno-regional coalition building based on targeted economic policies can be employed to secure national electoral coalitions. We examine the 2009 Malawian parliamentary elections where a newly-formed national party used its incumbent position to promote an economic policy based on food security in order to overcome traditional ethno-regional voting patterns. After presenting a formal model of an optimal allocation of an economic resource to induce vote-switching, we use district-level data in a system of equations approach finding that this strategic allocation did indeed contribute to the nation-wide electoral victory.
http://hdl.handle.net/10197/6504
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From the Great Lakes to the Great Rift Valley: Does Strategic Economic Policy Explain the 2009 Malawi Election?
(2014)
Brazys, Samuel; Heaney, Peter; Walsh, Patrick P.
From the Great Lakes to the Great Rift Valley: Does Strategic Economic Policy Explain the 2009 Malawi Election?
(2014)
Brazys, Samuel; Heaney, Peter; Walsh, Patrick P.
Abstract:
Ethno-regional voting cleavages have featured in a number of sub-Saharan African states during the third wave of democratization following the end of the Cold War.While the causes and consequences of these cleavages are well studied, there have been surprisingly few attempts to understand how strategies of pan-ethnic or pan-regional coalition building based on distributive economic policies could be employed to secure national electoral coalitions. In this paper we examine if in the 2009 Malawian parliamentary elections the newly-formed national party, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), led by the President Binguwa Mutharika used its incumbent position to promote an economic policy based on food security in order to overcome traditional ethno-regional voting patterns and win a nationwide electoral majority. After presenting a formal model of a optimal allocation of an economic resource to overcome ethnic bias and induce vote-switching, we use district-level data i...
http://hdl.handle.net/10197/5612
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Gender and voter appeal in Irish elections, 1948-1997
(2000)
O'Kelly, Michael
Gender and voter appeal in Irish elections, 1948-1997
(2000)
O'Kelly, Michael
Abstract:
In general elections in the Republic of Ireland 1948-1997, female candidates have received on average a lower proportion of first-preference votes than males. This disparity between male and female candidates is worsening over time. Female candidates have less electoral campaign experience than male candidates, and this helps to explain the gender gap. The declining importance of the ?widow?s (or daughter?s) seat? may contribute to the worsening of the gap. When these and other variables are taken into account, a residual voter bias against female candidates is statistically significant only among supporters of Fianna Fail; PD supporters actually favour female candidates.
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/60179
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Irish voter rationality: the 1987 Irish General Election revisited
(1990)
Bowler, Shaun; Farrell, David M.
Irish voter rationality: the 1987 Irish General Election revisited
(1990)
Bowler, Shaun; Farrell, David M.
Abstract:
In their study of Irish voters in 1987 Laver, Marsh and Sinnott concluded that there was little evidence of rational voting. This paper re-examines the question, using the same data, and finds evidence of rationality among those voters who switched their vote between 1982-1987. The results of a LOGIT analysis suggest that there was an issue basis to their decision to switch. Furthermore, there were cross party differences to the issue effects, suggesting some scope for party campaign influence over voters.
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64311
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Keeping it local: an investigation of the phenomenon of ‘friends and neighbours’ voting at the Irish general elections of 2011 and 2016
(2019)
Mullaney, Cathal
Keeping it local: an investigation of the phenomenon of ‘friends and neighbours’ voting at the Irish general elections of 2011 and 2016
(2019)
Mullaney, Cathal
Abstract:
Through use of tally data, this research considers the standing of the 'friends and neighbours' effect at two Irish general elections, 2011 and 2016. It does so through an examination of the 'friends and neighbours' effect and how it is impacted by a number of different variables, in order to provide an added insight into an element of voting behaviour that has permeated throughout the generations in Irish politics.
http://hdl.handle.net/10468/9999
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Mapping the Irish policy space: voter and party spaces in preferential elections
(2005)
Benoit, Kenneth; Laver, Michael
Mapping the Irish policy space: voter and party spaces in preferential elections
(2005)
Benoit, Kenneth; Laver, Michael
Abstract:
In this note we map the Irish policy space, locating both voters and parties on the most salient policy dimensions in Ireland. Estimates of the voter locations are based on the Irish National Election Survey (INES), conducted in 2002. Estimates of the party positions are based on an expert survey of party positions conducted by the authors in late 2002. We show that respondent self-placements on a priori policy scales are highly biased and difficult to interpret, and we rely instead on building scale positions for respondents from their answers to relevant attitude questions in the INES. The results provide a methodological template for locating voters and parties in a common space ? a significant problem for any analyst who wants to create an empirical elaboration of a spatial model of party competition.
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/60004
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Parler pour gouverner: Trois ?tudes sur le discours pr?sidentiel fran?ais
(2016)
ARNOLD, EDWARD; Labb?, Cyril; Labb?, Dominique; Moniere, Denis
Parler pour gouverner: Trois ?tudes sur le discours pr?sidentiel fran?ais
(2016)
ARNOLD, EDWARD; Labb?, Cyril; Labb?, Dominique; Moniere, Denis
Abstract:
hal- 01287657
Three statistical studies applied to presidential discourse (vocabulary, themes and style).The campaigns for the presidential elections of 2002, 2007 and 2012 reveal personalisation, tension and a growing level of aggression between candidates. The analysis of televised debates between the two finalists since 1974 leads to the same conclusions, and shows that political conditions of the moment prevail over the left-right divide and over the personalities of the candidates. The mapping of the political communication of seven presidents since 1958 shows that they talk a lot and prefer to use the medium of speeches rather than interviews or press conferences. Trois ?tudes de statistique appliqu?e au discours pr?sidentiel (vocabulaire, th?mes et style). Les campagnes pour les ?lections pr?sidentielles de 2002, 2007 et 2012 indiquent une personnalisation, une tension et une agressivit? croissante entre les candidats. L?analyse des d?bats t?l?vis?s entre les deux finalis...
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/91810
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Party support in the Dail elections 1981-1992: an ecological analysis
(1996)
Sinnott, Richard; Whelan, Brendan J.; McBride, James
Party support in the Dail elections 1981-1992: an ecological analysis
(1996)
Sinnott, Richard; Whelan, Brendan J.; McBride, James
Abstract:
This paper is a contribution to the aggregate-level or ecological analysis of voting behaviour in Ireland. It updates and re-evaluates previous research by considering the six elections of 1981,1982 (February), 1982 (November), 1987, 1989 and 1992. The approach to deriving measures of the independent variables is based on aggregating the Census figures for District Electoral Divisions. The paper begins by critically examining past research in this area focusing especially on the thesis that "agricultural structure" is the main determinant of the Fianna Fail vote. It goes on to present new analyses of party support across each of the six elections for four parties (Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour and Democratic Left/the Workers' Party) using a model incorporating class, urban-rural and liberal-conservative cleavages. The final section attempts to draw some general conclusions about the nature of party support in Ireland and how it has changed over time.
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64174
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Social media and political communication
(2014)
Molony, Martin
Social media and political communication
(2014)
Molony, Martin
http://doras.dcu.ie/24179/
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Socio-economic voter profile and motives for Islamist support in Morocco
(2014)
Pellicer, Miquel; Wegner, Eva
Socio-economic voter profile and motives for Islamist support in Morocco
(2014)
Pellicer, Miquel; Wegner, Eva
Abstract:
Based on an original dataset of merged electoral and census data, this article is a study of electoral support for the Islamist Party in Morocco in the 2002 and 2007 elections. It differentiates between the clientelistic, grievance and horizontal network type of supporters. We disentangle these profiles empirically on the basis of the role of education, wealth and exclusion for Islamist votes. We find no evidence of the clientelistic profile, but a shift from grievance in 2002 to a horizontal network profile in 2007. World Values Survey individual level data are used as a robustness check, yielding similar results. Qualitative evidence on a changing mobilization pattern of the party between 2002 and 2007 supports our conclusions.
http://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/12814/
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The effect of observable party cohesion on voter choice in liberal democracies
(2018)
BARRETT, DAVID JACK
The effect of observable party cohesion on voter choice in liberal democracies
(2018)
BARRETT, DAVID JACK
Abstract:
The goal of this thesis is to assess the electoral impact of party infighting. It addresses the key research question of what is the impact of party infighting on the electoral fortunes of that party. In answering this question by confirming that party infighting does affect parties a number of interrelated questions emerge. Why does this effect occur? Is it simply a function of the way that voters receive news about the party? Is it something intrinsic about the events of disunity themselves? Is it the disunity that causes the change in party support, or might the reverse be true? This topic is approached in a number of chapters. In Chapter One the topic is introduced. It explains why this is an important area of research and outlines the structure of the thesis. Chapter Two gives a theoretical overview and outlines what is already known from the literature on this topic. It concludes by observing that the literature is very uncertain on this area and that while there are many plau...
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/82676
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The Irish Dail Election 2007
(2007)
SUITER, JANE
The Irish Dail Election 2007
(2007)
SUITER, JANE
Abstract:
peer-reviewed
The Irish Republic Dail election held on 24 May 2007 was considered to be the most exciting in a generation or more. The early part of the campaign was dominated by questions relating to Taoiseach Bertie Ahern?s personal finances and the result of the election was wide open until the last days of the campaign. With hindsight the election was also significant for a number of other reasons. First, it marked the occasion when a Taoiseach was returned to power for the third time in a row, emulating the achievement of Eamonn De Valera and cementing Flanna Fail?s position as the dominant party of power. Second, it was the first occasion of the Green party entering government. Third, Fine Gael had a remarkably good election and as a result the smaller parties failed to make anticipated gains, returning the Dail to what looks suspiciously like the old two-and-a-half party system.
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/35006
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The Irish general election of February 2016: towards a new politics or an early election?
(2017)
Little, Conor
The Irish general election of February 2016: towards a new politics or an early election?
(2017)
Little, Conor
Abstract:
The general election that followed the ‘earthquake’ of 25 February 2011 (Gallagher and Marsh 2011; Hutcheson 2011; Little 2011) was always going to be an important staging post on the journey from the Fianna Fáil party’s predominance towards some new dispensation. That election took place five years and one day later. It delivered the most fragmented Dáil (lower house of parliament) ever and was followed by Ireland’s longest government formation process. Fine Gael’s Enda Kenny succeeded in becoming the first leader of his party since the 1920s to retain the office of Taoiseach (Prime Minister) after a general election. He achieved this by negotiating a minority coalition with several non-party (‘Independent’) TDs (MPs) and a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement with Fianna Fáil. However, the durability of these arrangements is in doubt.
http://hdl.handle.net/10344/6651
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The Irish legislative gender quota: The first election
(2017)
Brennan, Mary; Buckley, Fiona
The Irish legislative gender quota: The first election
(2017)
Brennan, Mary; Buckley, Fiona
Abstract:
In 2012 legislative gender quotas were introduced as part of the Fine Gael/Labour coalition government’s political reform agenda. The legislation specifies that payments to political parties ‘shall be reduced by 50 per cent, unless at least 30 per cent of the candidates whose candidatures were authenticated by the qualified party at the preceding general election were women and at least 30 per cent were men’. The 30 per cent gender threshold came into effect at the 2016 general election. Research demonstrates that gender quotas work to increase women’s political descriptive representation, but to do so, political parties must engage with them in ‘goodwill’, be ‘well intentioned’ or place women in ‘winnable seats’. This article examines if this was the case at the 2016 general election. Using statistics, as well as drawing from interviews with party strategists, the article assesses the impact of gender quotas on women’s candidate selection and election. We conclude that parties did ...
http://hdl.handle.net/10468/4193
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The legacy of the Irish Parliamentary Party in Independent Ireland, 1922-49
(2017)
O'Donoghue, Thomas Patrick Martin
The legacy of the Irish Parliamentary Party in Independent Ireland, 1922-49
(2017)
O'Donoghue, Thomas Patrick Martin
Abstract:
This study provides the first detailed analysis of the influence and persistence of Irish Party individuals, organisations and political culture in independent Ireland (1922-49). While many former followers remained disillusioned, others re-entered politics and won election to Dáil Éireann; the number of TDs with Irish Party heritage in the early Dáils is highlighted here for the first time. Previous scholarship has focussed on the enduring primacy of the Civil War divide; this thesis highlights the persistence of home rule loyalty in the Free State and the effects this had on the development of party politics. This includes special focus on the neo-Redmondite National League party; the Home Rule-tinged leadership of the Centre Party, the invocation of the Land League legacy, and the reasons why those from Home Rule backgrounds made the often difficult transition into the Treatyite fold. Many have noted the effects of proportional representation and multi-seat constituencies on the...
http://hdl.handle.net/10379/6251
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The parliamentary election in Ireland, February 2011
(2012)
GALLAGHER, MICHAEL; COURTNEY, MICHAEL
The parliamentary election in Ireland, February 2011
(2012)
GALLAGHER, MICHAEL; COURTNEY, MICHAEL
Abstract:
The three-party coalition government formed in 2007 between Fianna Fail, the Green Party and the Progressive Democrats appeared to have a bulletproof majority, and there was every reason to expect that, like its two immediate predecessors, it would last the full five-year term. However, the global recession that began later that year and hit Ireland with full force in mid-2008 quickly reduced the likelihood that the government would survive until 2012. In September 2008 the crisis in the Irish banking system, which had over-stretched its loan books far beyond the realms of prudence in the previous decade, was finally exposed following the collapse of Lehman Brothers. After the event there were many questions as to why neither political actors, nor Ireland?s or the EU?s regulatory system, had noticed the many warning signs. On 29 September 2008 the Irish government guaranteed the deposits and loan books of the six Irish banks, and over the next two years it nationalised or effectivel...
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64043
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The unfaithful Irish voter
(2019)
Marsh, Michael
The unfaithful Irish voter
(2019)
Marsh, Michael
Abstract:
Local and European elections have been held simultaneously since 1999. These offer an interesting context to look at the importance of party, both across each pair of elections and across these elections and future voting intentions. Analysis of behaviour in these elections suggests the influence of party is far from dominant. Exit polls and the 2002-7 Irish National election Study show around half of all voters supporting different parties in the two elections, and in some cases expressing vote intentions for the next general election that is different again. The elections of 2019 mark a low point in such cohesion.
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/89628
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Turnout in second order elections: the case of EP elections in Dublin 1984 and 1989
(1992)
Sinnott, Richard; Whelan, Brendan J.
Turnout in second order elections: the case of EP elections in Dublin 1984 and 1989
(1992)
Sinnott, Richard; Whelan, Brendan J.
Abstract:
This paper argues that the distinction between first order and second order elections should be used as an analytical tool rather than as a source of different standards to be applied in assessing turnout. The Maastricht Treaty makes turnout in European Parliament elections important both for the legitimacy of the Community and the development of European citizenship. The key empirical question is whether turnout in second order elections can be explained by social or other variables, or is largely idiosyncratic. The analysis uses turnout data in Dublin from 1984 and 1989. The idiosyncratic interpretation is not warranted. The sources of low turnout are in large measure identifiable and they indicate that the reality falls a long way short of the ideal whereby every citizen, regardless of status or resources, has an equal say.
http://hdl.handle.net/2262/64459
Displaying Results 1 - 25 of 31 on page 1 of 2
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