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Economic shocks and growth: spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis
Doran, Justin; Fingleton, Bernard
The response by regional and national economies to exogenous impulses has a well-established literature in both spatial econometrics and in mainstream econometrics and is of considerable importance given the post-2007 economic crisis, which is characterised by a period of severe global instability resulting from unprecedented economic shocks. This paper focuses on dynamic counterfactual predictions and impulse-response functions derived from appropriate econometric models. These provide insight regarding the question of whether responses to economic shocks are transitory or whether they have a permanent effect. Analysis shows that output shocks have had permanent effects on productivity so that economies have tended not to return to the pre-shock path but rather adjust to new levels. This suggests that the current recession will be embodied permanently within the memory of some of Europe's leading economies as a hysteretic effect.
Keyword(s): Vector error correction; European Union; Economic shocks; Crisis; Verdoorn law
Publication Date:
Type: Journal article
Peer-Reviewed: Yes
Language(s): English
Institution: University College Cork
Citation(s): DORAN, J. & FINGLETON, B. 2014. Economic shocks and growth: Spatio-temporal perspectives on Europe's economies in a time of crisis. Papers in Regional Science, 93, S137-S165.
Publisher(s): Wiley, Regional Science Association International
File Format(s): application/pdf
First Indexed: 2016-07-13 05:51:16 Last Updated: 2016-10-14 05:41:38