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Recession or retrofit: An ex-post evaluation of Irish residential space heating trends
Dennehy, Emer R.; Dineen, Denis; Rogan, Fionn; Ó Gallachóir, Brian P.
Analysis of the technical potential for energy efficiency often highlights very large potential savings; however, the reality of savings achieved often falls far short of this potential. Ex-post analysis is known to be important for quantifying realised energy-efficiency savings, but is often neglected for many reasons. This paper describes an approach to an ex-post analysis that uses readily available administrative data and provides insights into the impact of an energy-efficiency policy measure of residential energy-efficiency retrofitting (upgrades). Ex-post analyses have the advantage of including the impacts of events and behaviours that coincide with energy-efficiency programs and thus facilitate disentangling external influences and avoidance of misattribution of savings. Three different quantitative approaches are used to determine whether the national energy-efficiency retrofit programmes or the economic recession was responsible for the sharp fall in residential space-heating energy demand in Ireland between 2007 and 2012. The analysis finds that while Government energy-efficiency retrofitting programmes have played a role in reducing energy consumption, the biggest influence by far between 2007 and 2012 was the economic recession. The top down decomposition analysis recorded energy savings (including â savingsâ that were due to the recession) that were 3.9 times greater than bottom-up retrofit savings related to residential space-heating measures over the period 2006 â 2012. The analysis highlights that an important policy challenge is to achieve reduced consumption due to behavioural changes while experiencing economic growth.
Keyword(s): Energy efficiency; Exergy; Fuel switching; Retrofit; Neeap savings; LMDI-I; Top-down; Bottom-up
Publication Date:
Type: Journal article
Peer-Reviewed: Yes
Language(s): English
Institution: University College Cork
Funder(s): Science Foundation Ireland
Citation(s): Dennehy, E. R., Dineen, D., Rogan, F. and Ó Gallachóir, B. P. (2019) 'Recession or retrofit: An ex-post evaluation of Irish residential space heating trends', Energy and Buildings, 205, 109474 (13pp). doi: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.109474
Publisher(s): Elsevier B.V.
File Format(s): application/pdf
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First Indexed: 2019-11-15 06:48:51 Last Updated: 2019-11-15 06:48:51