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Forecasting Electrical Load Using a Multi-time-scale Approach |
Ringwood, J.V.; Murray, F.T.
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This paper describes the application of a multi-time-scale
technique to the modelling and forecasting of short-term
electrical load. The multi-time-scale technique is based on
adjusting the underlying short sampling period forecast time
series with specific target points and possible aggregated
demand. This allows not only improvement of the short
sampling period forecast, but also focuses on weighting the
accuracy of the forecast at certain critical points e.g. the
overnight minimum and daily peaks. Various model types may be utilised at the upper level (forecating the aggregated
consumption and target points at daily level), including
intelligent models such as neural and fuzzy models, but the
base model is currently restricted to a linear form. Results
for the Irish national electrical grid demonstrate the
effectiveness of the technique.
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Keyword(s):
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Electronic Engineering; Forecasting electrical load; multi-time scale; load forecasting; state-space |
Publication Date:
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1999 |
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Type:
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Conference item |
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Peer-Reviewed:
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Yes |
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Institution:
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NUI Maynooth |
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Citation(s):
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Ringwood, J.V. and Murray, F.T. (1999) Forecasting Electrical Load Using a Multi-time-scale Approach. In: European Control Conference, ECC99, August 31 - September 3 1999, Karlsruhe, Germany. |
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File Format(s):
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application/pdf |
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Related Link(s):
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http://eprints.nuim.ie/1963/1/JR_C59JRecc.pdf |
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First Indexed:
2010-06-03 05:00:16 Last Updated:
2010-06-03 05:00:16 |
